The 2004 Constructors' Championship looks to be decided amongst the "big 3" teams of Ferrari, McLaren and Williams. Ferrari thoroughly dominated in 2002 and were expected to maintain their advantage in 2003. But the Italian team struggled for much of the season with its Bridgestone tyres plus a reluctant launch control system while their Michelin-shod opposition enjoyed a distinct dry-weather traction advantage. While Ferrari went on to win a record 5th consecutive Constructors' crown, this past year was a suspenseful dogfight not settled until the final race at Suzuka. With last year's points system still in place and all three teams as strong as ever, I see 2004 being as closely contested as was 2003.

The teams will have to adapt to new regulations this coming year. Of the changes made by the FIA, the one that stands out concerns engine reliability. In 2004 each car/driver combination must complete each three-day race weekend with only one engine. The penalty for replacing an engine will be 10 grid positions at the start. Engine reliability, or the lack thereof, could play a large role in deciding both championships this coming season.

Ferrari

The Italian team established a new record by winning their 5th consecutive Constructors' championship last year. The title was quite an accomplishment taking into account the disadvantage they faced with poorly performing tyres. The Maranello based team seemed to have trouble with their launch control that cost both drivers valuable positions off the grid. Schumacher and Barrichello again will lead the Scuderia charge this year. The German champion added 6 more wins to his impressive resumé last season. Michael's driving was extremely sloppy at times (remember Melbourne, Sepang, Interlagos and Suzuka?) and his drives had a touch of desperation about them. No doubt Schumi is still the best driver on the F1 stage but his reign is coming to an end. Barrichello made his share of mistakes last year too. The Brazilian was able to score two wins but once again was plagued by mechanical failures that somehow always seem to sidestep his team-mate.

Both drivers will have to be at their best if the "Prancing Horse" is to remain champion. Ferrari has enjoyed unmatched engine reliability over the past few seasons and this tips the scale towards them in light of the new one-engine rule. One item worth noting - Bridgestone engineers reportedly are worried by Michelin's pace during winter tests. If Michelin tyres are dominant again this year, Ferrari is unlikely to be victorious.

Williams

Sir Frank's team struggled with an ill handling car into May last year. Once sorted out, Williams dominated through the mid-part of the season and led Ferrari by 12 points after Monza. The BMW powered team appeared to be on the verge of snatching the title from Ferrari. Driving mistakes by both drivers and the team at Indianapolis left only a 5-point margin over their Italian rivals going into the final race at Suzuka. Montoya looked to be on his way to a run-away victory until faulty hydraulics ended his day. The younger Schumacher had three incidents at the chicane and failed to score. Williams lost the Constructors' championship more than Ferrari won it.

On the surface, the Williams' appear to be just as strong as last year. Their driver situation is curious to say the least. Montoya has already signed with McLaren for 2005. Ralf may not be back after this year either if he continues to demand $15m for his services. Both will have to limit their mistakes to give the Grove based team a shot at the title. Williams' BMW powerplant has been excellent so no real worries there. They must have their chassis and aero programs in tip-top shape at Melbourne - they will not win by wasting a third of the season again.

McLaren

Make no mistake that the 2003 MP4-18 that never materialized was a costly and embarrassing mistake for the Woking based outfit. So it was no surprise that their MP4-19 car was the first 2004 design to debut in the off-season tests. The team will have more time to ensure all is right with the new car than Ferrari and Williams have with theirs. Raikkonen made fewer mistakes than his championship rivals. The young Finn looks poised to win the Drivers' championship. To realize his dream he will have to step up his performance one more notch. Team-mate Coulthard struggled all season with the one-lap qualifying format. With Montoya moving over after next season, this year could be the Scot's last in F1... will he go out with a bang or a whimper? If McLaren hopes to challenge for the Constructors' title their Mercedes V10 must be more reliable than last year's (more horsepower would help too) and DC has to improve in qualifying.

Renault

Renault was the big surprise in the 2003 campaign. Drivers Alonso and Trulli finished in the points 21 times. Both showed great tenacity in their superb handling Renault machines. The team would seem to be at a point where they could contest the "big 3" for victories on a regular basis. However, all is not rosy within the French based team. Two key figures in their design team have departed. Mike Gascoyne, technical director of racing, is now employed by Toyota. John Iley, head of aerodynamics, has moved to Ferrari. Renault will be utilizing a 72-degree engine this year, moving away from the nicely packaged but underpowered 110-degree powerplant. Insiders at Renault admit that the new engine is but a stopgap until a 90-degree design is ready in 2005 - meaning that this year's car is likely not to be as competitive as a year ago.

Toyota

Toyota is a team on the way up. Panis and da Matta are both solid drivers and I look for the Brazilian to be more competitive in his 2nd season. Toyota has acquired the services of Mike Gascoyne who headed the highly successful racing program at Renault. If Gascoyne can improve the aero package, Toyota should compete for podium finishes in 2004. Their engine proved plenty strong last year so any power increase will be icing on the cake. Should Renault struggle with their new engine, Toyota may jump as high as 4th in the final standings. Gascoyne's design influence may not be felt until 2005, a year I expect this team to be seeking podiums in every race.

Sauber

It will be interesting to see if new drivers Fisichella and Massa can improve upon the 19 points Frentzen and Heidfield brought home last year. The Swiss team recently unveiled their new wind tunnel, which should help the engineers design a competitive chassis to compliment their Ferrari engines. Recent news has Sauber utilizing Ferrari's latest engines (and rear ends). This is a welcome change from previous seasons when the team ran year old Ferrari V10s. The ultra-modern aero facility bodes well for the team's future. I would not be surprised to see Sauber improve quite a bit during the second half of 2004, as the tunnel may begin paying dividends at a point the team has traditionally faded in previous seasons.

BAR

BAR should have the upper hand over Jaguar, Jordan and Minardi. If Honda can solve their reliability problems, BAR could be competitive enough to place as high as fourth in points. The British based team has switched to Michelin tyres for 2004, and that should improve their pace. Button and Sato picked up 8 points at Suzuka that propelled BAR over Sauber and Jaguar into 5th place in the final standings last year. Button looks to be returning to top form while the Japanese driver has yet to prove himself at any circuit other than Suzuka. Both drivers will need to consistently churn out results as they did in Japan, if BAR is to remain "the best of the rest".

Jaguar

Jaguar found itself in the embarrassing position this off-season of needing a paying driver to team with Australian Mark Webber for 2004. The "leaping cat" team has been mismanaged since Ford purchased the outfit from Sir Jackie Stewart. The manufacturing giant is said to be unwilling to part with adequate funding until the team produces better results. F1 rookie Christian Klien will struggle this year - any points he may score will be an unexpected bonus. Webber will have to attain point-paying results more frequently if Jaguar hopes to remain in the mid-pack of teams. Look for Jaguar to finish no higher than 8th overall in 2004.

Jordan

Fisichella's surprise win at Brazil last year proved to be the only highlight for Eddie Jordan's team. The team garnered only three additional points in the final 13 races to complete a wretched season for the colourful Irishman. The best news for Jordan is they will have the same spec Cosworth V10 as Jaguar this year. Even with an up-to-date engine, 2004 looks gloomy for Jordan.

Minardi

The perennial last placed team on the grid failed to score a single point in 2003. A recent article stated that Minardi's budget for 2004 is to be roughly $30m. The revelation though was that Ferrari and Toyota have approximately $600m budgeted to their F1 programs! The discrepancy is truly staggering. One invaluable service Minardi (and to some degree Jordan) provides is an opportunity for talented young drivers to gain entry into F1. Alonso, Fisichella, Trulli and Webber all got their starts with Minardi and are now stars on the F1 grid. If not for Minardi how long would they have had to wait to compete in F1? More importantly, would they have ever gotten a chance to show their skills if not for a small independent team such as Minardi? True F1 fans should root for Minardi and hope some success comes their way in 2004.

The 2004 Minardi team looks to have a better engine program and should manage to score a few points. Don't be too surprised if Stoddart's team finishes ahead of Jordan.