The Italian Grand Prix at Monza has a habit of dishing up the unusual. Recall Senna throwing it away in the 1988 race by running into a backmarker, then Gerhard Berger and Michele Alboreto finishing with a very popular Ferrari 1-2!

More recent strangeness includes Frentzen's win for Jordan-Mugen in 1999 at a dry race, the famous one with Irvine missing a tyre at his pit stop, and Hakkinen having a melt down in the hedgerow. The next in 2000 we saw a series of incidents at Turn 1, one of which fatally injured Marshal Paolo Gislamberti. Then we had the blackened 2001 race, all in deep mourning after the September 11 attacks. Most drivers did not want to race, in particular the Schumachers and Irvine, and none wanted to win. Last year, we saw Ralf blow up very early while leading and pulling away at a half second a lap, followed by Michael handing the win to Rubens at Ferrari for the second race in succession.

The Monza layout has remained fundamentally the same for almost 50 years. Three challenging chicanes have been added over time, Rettifilo and Ascari in 1972, and Roggia in 1976. Ascari was flattened out in 1974 making it a bit faster, and in 1976, Rettifilo was moved from the end of the pit lane exit further down the straight on the way to Curva Grande. This chicane was also altered from its original more classic left-right design to a multiple left-right-left-right concept. In 1994 and 1995, Curve di Lesmo was "squared out" from what had been a faster, looping curve. First the exit was turned into a 90 degree right turn, and the year after, the same was done to the entrance at Lesmo. Finally, after many unfortunate first turn mêlées at Rettifilo, this chicane was redesigned into a right-left-right with a decent escape route added, in 2000. Even with the modifications over the years, the Monza circuit remains the fastest on the F1 calendar.

Monza offers drivers a chance to show their mettle - that gutsy, go-for-it stuff. It is a speed-demon's paradise, a power circuit par excellence, and one needs to be brave. Turn 1 has seen many incidents over the years, and getting out in front early can be a bonus.

It is theoretically possible to overtake at the Monza track, but it proves rather difficult in practice amongst cars close to each other in performance. The straights are preceded by chicanes and curves that make it hard to get on another car's tail prior to attempting a tow. In actual fact, the chicanes have shown to be the better opportunity, though tricky. Getting by backmarkers and cars on different fuel loads is fairly straightforward, so various race strategies can work equally well. But for real passing for position, you need to wait for your rival to make a mistake and then be ready to pounce, or get them through pit work if you can.

There are usually a fair number of on-track passes for position at the Monza races. Last year, there were 12 genuine on-track overtaking moves, 6 amongst the top points contenders. In 2001, even though it was a sombre race with few drivers wanting to be there, we nonetheless witnessed nine on-track passes for position, 5 amongst contenders. Unfortunately, this year one could bet a fair sum that few if any overtaking moves will be made on track by any of the championship contenders.

In Hungary, we learned the tune for the remaining races, and sadly it is a lullaby. "Take no risks. Go for the secure points. Choose a conservative set-up and strategy. Don't push the tyres, engine, chassis, team, gas pedal!" Montoya showed us this in spades with his non-race strategy in Budapest, and it is difficult to imagine Kimi and Michael not following that plan.

The only ones fighting now are the ones with nothing to lose, or the ones with a team-mate to protect. So it should be a much more exciting race for Ralf, Rubens, and DC! This could turn out to be a real sleeper, though. Maybe I will videotape it and watch it someday when I am tired of "Seinfeld" reruns...

What is becoming of Formula One? The key factors for success in 2003 thus far have been:

- Qualify on a super-soft compound that would not survive any normal planet earth race (courtesy of the new Saturday fuel-laden qualifying regulation)
- Qualify on light fuel on any tracks with little or no overtaking - namely the majority of them (courtesy of the new Saturday fuel-laden qualifying regulation)
- Use a new Michelin tyre whose tread width profile is an illusion, as its true contact patch width extends into the sidewall when in use (courtesy of the tyre war)
- Run a "safe" race that brings you home with decent points but no win, and totally emasculates you as a driver (courtesy of the new points system)
- Have your non-contending team-mate run lighter fuel and softer tyres enabling him to get up front and block for you, especially at Turn 1 (courtesy of new points system and tyre war)

Notice nothing on that success factors list up there that says anything about "Adrian Newey chassis" or "innovative gearbox design", etc? Formula One is in deep trouble. At this stage, Max and Bernie may as well simply decide in advance who is to win the championships, and then let them all race for the fun of it. Because it is not a contest any longer. It is a soap opera.

So, Michael, Juan, and Kimi will be cruising from flag to flag. The smart and ultimately victorious one will qualify on the least amount of fuel and be on the front row. It will be obvious to each of them that their main rivals will be too afraid of losing points to attempt any real passes, so it should be fairly processional for those three. I hope Kimi is the one who drains the fuel tank before Saturday qualifying, because he is still owed one from when his engine blew at Nürburgring, when he was humiliating the field.

That one unfortunate occurrence for Kimi Raikkonen and McLaren Mercedes at Nürburgring is more important than most people realize, given this year's points system. If Kimi had won that race as he was obviously going to do big-style, McLaren would be leading the Constructors' Championship with 125 points, tied with BMW-Williams, and Ferrari would be third with 119 points. Kimi would be leading the Drivers' Championship by a good margin with 80 points. Michael would be in second place with 71 points, and Montoya in third with 69 points. Hopefully that brings the point home regarding just how paramount it is to finish the race with decent points and not worry about the win. Seems like a shame to this author - what a total waste of awesome motorsport technology! What a waste of time, money, and effort for all of the teams! What a waste of a beautiful circuit!

Getting back to the Monza exercise, let us at least look at what we should expect of the field of "contenders" this year. The characteristics of the track are straightforward - it is a power circuit with good grip, medium abrasiveness, a mix of high and medium speed turns, long straights and no hairpins or turns under third gear, and three major chicanes that must be incredibly annoying to anyone out there for a relaxing cruise! There are some challenging bumps in the braking zones, and some curbs on the exits that require the brain to be turned on for some small percentage of the lap. The engine at full throttle for two-thirds of each lap comprises the remainder of the thinking required.

Basically, Ferrari and BMW Williams are the only teams possessing the winning combination of engine power and aerodynamic efficiency. So it is difficult to imagine the Italian GP of 2003 being anything but a Ferrari-BMW shoot-out, especially as the tyres will be closer to equal this weekend. Ferrari has historically done the best at Monza. It is a tifosi-fest each year at the Milan-area venue, and the Scuderia rarely disappoints. Interestingly, Michael Schumacher has only won in even-numbered years. But he may desire payback for handing the race to Rubens last year. At least they were more creative at Monza than they were at Hungary, and put MS on a different fuel strategy than his team-mate. That race was easily Michael's win in 2002.

Ferrari also has a new aero package, a new spec of the 052 engine, and new Bridgestone tyres for this home race. They should be tough to beat.

BMW Williams has an excellent record at the Italian GP since 1999, when Ralf finished in 2nd place and set the fastest race lap with a SUPERTEC engine, believe it or not. Juan has done well qualifying on soft compounds in the past at Monza, and he may do this again if he attempts a three-stop race. His win in 2001 was a bit of a fluke with the post-September 11 boycott by the Schumachers, and Rubens' fuel rig failure while he had the race win easily in hand. But that BMW engine is tough to top at Monza, and their chassis is much better this year. They will be very strong. Maybe we will see some team tactics with Ralf qualifying light so as to be able to block for Juan.

The Mercedes engine has come close to those top two this year, but the overall McLaren package just is not there, and it does not seem to be coming, judging by last week's Monza test data - and that test was WITH the new aero package and engine upgrade. McLaren is likely to be a half second or more off the pace and fighting with Renault and others for the third and fourth rows. There is something going on with the tyres at McLaren that remains a mystery, but it seems they have not had the benefits that Williams has had, and now they will be forced to readjust again since the FIA clarified the contact patch width regulation definitions recently.

Benetton and Renault have also had a strong history at Monza. Renault will not have much opportunity to show off their spiffy chassis here, but they should handle the bumps and curbs well and could always get lucky with engine DNFs for their opponents. But they are truly down in the pack on engine power. Toyota, Honda, and the Cosworth in the Jaguar are all ahead of the Renault in raw grunt.

Of the rest of the field, let's look at the Bridgestone runners first. Jordan used to do very well at Monza when it had an engine. Frentzen won the race in the dry in 1999. There is just no chance at all this year. Even one point would be a stretch. Sauber has a new aero package and upgraded engine spec for this race, and Frentzen is over there now. It seems like a stretch for them too, however, but they have more reason for optimism than Jordan or Minardi.

BAR-Honda is the obvious favourite amongst the mid-pack Bridgestone-clad teams. Villeneuve has sported some top straight-line speeds this year, and he has a lot to prove to the world if he wishes to avoid unemployment. Expect Jacques to be wringing the life out of that Honda engine this weekend. Points could be within reach for him or for team-mate Button if the top four teams don't have perfect reliability.

The remaining Michelin runners actually look quite strong. Toyota has had a powerful engine since their infancy, and is learning how to get the most out of the chassis. They may struggle with fuel loads and braking stability, we will just have to wait and see. Cristiano da Matta improved the most of all the new drivers at the Monza test last week, beating team-mate Panis on the final day. This is a circuit that da Matta should find a breeze, given his experience in the U.S.

Finally, let us not forget that Eddie Irvine qualified very well and was on the podium last year in the Jaguar at Monza. We should logically then see the hyped Mark Webber winning this year's race! Seriously, the one car that the Jaguar team supports, namely Webber's, should do very well - the track suits the Jag. Justin Wilson has been given until the end of the season now to prove himself. Previously Jaguar said they would decide about his future after Monza, but since Wilson's car has self-destructed in his two races with the team, that wouldn't be fair! Wilson does not have a prayer as long as his car continues to shut down during practice sessions on Friday. He is not even getting a fair shot. I predict we will see more mechanical gremlins for young Justin yet again in Italy.

Monza can lure drivers into a sense of ease, but beware: the braking points, chicanes, and curbs require complete focus and precision lap after lap. Without it, you can run your car ragged into a DNF, or lose valuable time and find your rival tucked up under your tail. The extremely low downforce set-ups used at Monza, evidenced by the tiny single-element rear wings, not only allow for drafting down the straights, but also make the car so loose that many opportunities exist for spins. Some have likened it to driving in the wet - having to push and challenge, but tiptoeing along the fine line between grip and none.

The most challenging aspect of the course from a driver's perspective is the Parabolica curve at the end of the lap. It is menacing to look at from the cockpit, and how you negotiate it determines your speed down the straight and into the first sector. If you are watching qualifying times on Saturday, when the cars are in race set-up, keep an eye on the sector 3 times, and be very impressed.

Certain types of drivers clearly excel at tracks like Monza. Here is how the current F1 drivers have performed at this famed track over their careers:

Driver	Races	Races in points	Podiums
Michael Schumacher	10	8	5
Rubens Barrichello	10	5	2
Ralf Schumacher	6	4	4
Heinz-Harald Frentzen	8	3	3
David Coulthard	9	3	1
Jacques Villeneuve	7	2	0
Juan Montoya	2	1	1
Jenson Button	3	1	0
Jos Verstappen	6	1	0
Jarno Trulli	6	1	0
Giancarlo Fisichella	6	1	0
Olivier Panis	7	1	0

The Schumacher brothers and Heinz-Harald Frentzen have truly shone at Monza over the years. Michael has a stunning record, scoring points in every Monza race he has finished, with 5 podiums and 3 wins, which should be 4 but for last year's tactics, and probably 5 if he had attempted to race in 2001.

Ralf Schumacher has not only scored points in every race he's finished, but he has been on the podium in each one as well. He has also been on the podium with every make of car he has driven, including the 1998 Jordan and the 1999 Williams Supertec. Ralf was leading the race last year when his engine blew. It is not certain that Ralf will be 100% fit for this race, however, as he suffered a massive crash in Monza testing last week and was rendered unconscious with a severe concussion. His clearance came from his doctors at home in Salzburg, and Sid Watkins did not get involved. I hope Ralf knows what he is doing. The g forces are very high at Monza.

Frentzen does not often show up David Coulthard and Jacques Villeneuve in historical analyses, but at Monza he has been the superior performer. He has scored points in three races, each one a podium, one a win. He was rather quick in testing last week at Monza as well. It is a shame he had to sit out the race last year amidst the Arrows team collapse.

Of the others, Rubens should do well in the Ferrari, as the car is very well suited, though Barrichello is not particularly strong at Monza traditionally. Kimi Raikkonen is a bit of an unknown as his McLaren did not hold up last year, and it is not holding up too well this year either. But Kimi's driving style would seem to suit Monza very well. Juan Montoya is another unknown regarding his personal driving suitability, but he has had a very well good car since he entered F1, and he is definitely one of the favourites for this year's podium.

Fernando Alonso also seems like he should do well at Monza, but like Raikkonen, likely does not have the needed kit. Cristiano da Matta was hot in testing last week by day 3, and the Toyota is way up there for straight-line speed, so I expect decent points for da Matta if his car holds up and he doesn't spin off. Similarly, Webber should be grabbing some points, these latter two drivers possibly beating out one or two of the Renaults and maybe even the McLarens.

One final note - the first draft of the 2004 FIA Formula One calendar has been released, and is it ever wacky! Canada, as we know, has lost its GP for the same reason Spa lost theirs this season. The US GP has finally been moved out of American football season, but unfortunately now conflicts with the US Open Golf Tournament and Father's Day.

Brazil has been moved to the much nicer weather season in late October and is the last race of the year in 2004. Bahrain is taking its place as the third race of the year in early April. Most interesting, the European GP at Nürburgring is now moved up to snow-prone April and the 4th slot, with Imola the traditionally 4th race jumping to the warmer pastures of June.

Spa is back in its usual place, and China is slotted in at the former date of the US GP in late September. There is now a spring break between race 3 and 4 in addition to the normal summer break in August. There is indeed no room on the calendar for Canada even if the Quebec government changes the anti-tobacco law. It is a great shame to lose this race - one of the best venues around. Hopefully it will be back with good speed.

And now it is time to see just how illegal those Michelin tyres were. Bring it on Monza!